A differences-in-differences approach to the UPP policy and crime displacement in the city neighborhoods and metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro.

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2020-04-27Author
Rodrigues, Hugo S., 1988-
0000-0002-8325-3235
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This thesis uses differences-in-differences causal inference method to study the
impact of the UPP policy in the surrounding neighborhoods of the city of Rio and
also the spillover effects potentially caused by it. Five types of crimes were taken
into account: Violent death, rape, robbery, drug related and death caused by police
intervention, each of them with a certain degree of relationship with the "drug trading
cycle" Rio suffers. The model reveals statistically significant results for all types of
crime, with the exception of rape, potentially revealing how UPP in fact only swept
crime to other cities and the reduction of it perceived along the years was a general
trend. An event study using leads was also used to increase robustness of the research,
showing parallel trends assumption cannot be discarded for UPP regions.