A Pandemic of Skepticism: The relationship between COVID-19 conspiracy belief and unconventional political behavior in the United States

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, many Americans have turned to COVID-19 conspiracy theories to make sense of the world. At the same time, the United States has faced an increase in unconventional political acts like destructive protests, law and mandate noncompliance, and events like the Capitol insurrection. Considering these trends, this study tests the hypothesis that belief in COVID-19 conspiracy theories increases one’s willingness to commit unconventional political acts. Additionally, the study tests whether a causal relationship exists between general conspiracy exposure and unconventional political behavior. To test these hypotheses, I conducted a nationally representative online survey in the summer of 2021. In analysis, a series of regression models showed a statistically significant positive relationship between COVID-19 conspiracy belief and unconventional political behavior (standardized beta=0.296, t=7.999, p<0.001) even after accounting for possible confounders. These results suggest that the endorsement of some COVID-19 conspiracies increases one’s willingness to commit unconventional political acts. Regarding the second hypothesis, T Test results from a survey experiment showed that conspiracy exposure does not directly cause an increase in willingness to commit unconventional acts for the general population. However, exposure does have a significant causal effect on some demographic subsets. These results suggest that unconventional political behavior is not influenced by simple exposure to conspiracy theories but a certain attitude towards them. The findings of this study ought to be considered when assessing ways to reduce dangerous conspiracy belief and political acts in the United States.