Age, period, and cohort effects on trust of government in rural America.


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After the Presidential Election of 2016, natural surprise was offered as to the impact of rural communities and working-class voters on the outcome. While much research has been done on racial, gender, and individual economic-based tensions, little research has addressed the underlying macro-level economic shifts in rural communities that influence both former conditions. Using hierarchical age-period-cohort with cross-classified random effect modeling (HAPC-CCREM) and a span of thirty-five years of empirical data, I address the linkage between macro-level socioeconomic conditions and institutional trust. I hypothesize that rural communities have experienced significant period forces that have influenced their levels of institutional trust. The statistical model reveals that while there was little difference between cohorts, statistical significance was achieved in many periods that overlay shocks to the less-diverse base of economic capital in rural America. Future models will introduce additional random, level 2 covariates to directly address community socioeconomic contexts.



Age-period-cohort. Institutional trust.